Say that you have 10 events that each have a probability from 0% to 100% and each have a potential impact that is either 0 if the event doesn't happen or a number between $0-$10 if the event does happen. How do I figure out the aggregate potential outcomes for this list, if the events are correlated?
If these events were uncorrelated, we could just draw out 1,024 scenarios with different probabilities and outcomes for each and add them up. However, given that these are correlated, it becomes more complex.
How do we find out the sum of all outcomes of the 10 events? e.g., what are the chances of an outcome of $20, $50, $80?
Thanks! Dan
