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Holiday calendar support #272

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ramyahrgowda opened this issue Nov 6, 2020 · 3 comments
Open

Holiday calendar support #272

ramyahrgowda opened this issue Nov 6, 2020 · 3 comments

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@ramyahrgowda
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@ramyahrgowda ramyahrgowda commented Nov 6, 2020

Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.
While sales forecasting, it is necessary that the model is given the input about the promotions, special events that are taken care of in the prophet model as the holiday effect. Does orbit support this feature?

@ramyahrgowda ramyahrgowda changed the title Holiday calendar Holiday calendar support Nov 6, 2020
@edwinnglabs
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@edwinnglabs edwinnglabs commented Nov 6, 2020

Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.
While sales forecasting, it is necessary that the model is given the input about the promotions, special events that are taken care of in the prophet model as the holiday effect. Does orbit support this feature?

So if i understand your question correctly, you want to do some causal effect/scenario analysis with promos and events. There are two parts: the data supply and the regression analysis. We don't have an auto load of events based on the calendar like prophet. However, if you provide them on your own (as a binary indicator) and input as the regressor_col, you should perform the analysis you want. Since we want to focus on the modeling part, we don't cover extensive features engineering at this point. Hope it answers your question.

@hassan-jvd90
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@hassan-jvd90 hassan-jvd90 commented Mar 20, 2021

Hi @edwinnglabs , I'd like to contribute to this feature in orbit. I have some experience with Prophet and this might be useful here as well.
Here is how I'd probably do this:
Use the holidays package: https://pypi.org/project/holidays/ to get country/location-based holidays and then create a binarized dataframe as suggested by you that can be consumed as a regressor. This might be served through utils/features. Let me know what you think. Thanks!

@edwinnglabs
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@edwinnglabs edwinnglabs commented Mar 21, 2021

That should work @hassan-jvd90. Thank you for bringing this up. Originally, we don't want to do full automation of appending holidays / events within the model. But what you suggested -- making this as utilities is a good idea especially given building regression analysis tools is one of our focuses. I would be very happy to see a PR of what you suggested :)

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